A pair of GOATS highlight this week's upcoming, with items from both Michael Jordan and Tom Brady going under the hammer.
cllct's Darren Rovell and Will Stern preview the lots and debate where the final prices might settle.
Let's get to it ...
1986-87 Fleer Michael Jordan PSA 10
Stern: It shouldn’t come as a shock to see a PSA 10 Jordan rookie appear in Goldin’s auction closing this week — after all, it would be more of a fascination to see a marquee auction without one. But, coming off of the outlier $292,800 sale at Goldin at the start of this month — a leap of more than $120,000 from the previous sale — this lot deserves special attention, particularly due to its PWCC A Top 30% Eye Appeal designation.
The highest comp since August 2021, a $372,000 result in January 2024 at Heritage, featured another eye appeal designation. A look at comparable sales history shows these outlier sales for cards featuring eye appeal designations are no fluke.
The $222,000 sale featuring PWCC S Top 5% Eye Appeal leaped more than $30,000 from the last comp of under $188,000. This trend, while not perfect in any event, is enough to suggest collectors really do place added premiums to copies further distinguished from their PSA grades into an upper echelon among the elite. With bidding already at $160,000, it seems like we will see another sale well above the recent average.
Rovell: My initial reaction was like, come on, we are not talking about this card again. But, in this case, it's important to deep dive into market dynamics and effects of promotion. PWCC's eye appeal, whether real or not, did change prices, and I'm particularly interested in the latest Jordan PSA 10 jump.
Tom Brady final career win game-used pants
Stern: With a limited supply of Brady game-used jerseys available on the open market, it would appear we are entering something of a pants era, at least when it comes to No. 12.
It has been barely three weeks since another pair of Brady game-worn pants, used during his final NFL game, sold for $89,100 at auction, the record for any pants that weren't worn by Babe Ruth.
I’m generally a “first” and “last” kind of guy in collecting (sans significant moments), meaning I tend to defer to the debut and final games as opposed to first wins or first touchdowns. But, this is an industry built on momentum, and the recent sale got plenty of attention. Plus, Brady’s unique persona, comparable only to Michael Jordan in its association with winning, could change things.
Rovell: Will, pants are weird. Jerseys are one thing, but pants alone, I don't care if it's the first game, last game. There's a reason they go for so much less than a jersey. They aren't as exciting looking, and I don't see the appeal.
Michael Jordan “broken-foot” game Air Jordan 1s
Stern: As I mentioned above, Jordan is tied to winning like few others. Breaking a foot is not exactly “winning.” So, these sneakers, while historically significant — and certainly a fascinating counterpoint to the never-ending Jordan items tied to his dominance — feel like they should be priced like a typical AJ1 from the era, rather than the top-tier pair indicated by Lelands’ $400,000 to $500,000 estimate. As we discussed last week, there are a few other factors at play,, not the least of which are those ever-pesky comps.
The same pair sold in 2022 for $422,130. The sneaker market has not fared well in the time since at the high-end. The banner example of this comes in the form of the Air Ships which sold for $1.47 million in 2021 before selling for $624,000 in 2023.
Next, there simply is not a photo-match worth betting on here. I spoke to the auction house and was told due to the low availability and quality of images from the era, it elected not to send the sneakers in for a photo-match. However, the consignor did uncover previously unseen images from the game with which the auction house has used to create an in-house match. I don’t like the idea of auction houses divvying out their own documentation of this sort, which should always come from a third-party.
To play devil’s advocate, I tend to agree with Lelands’ notion that these newly found images not only act as an added source of value for the sneakers in terms of trust, but also in so far as it provides hope to future owners of a feasible photo-match.
If these come close to that previous comp, I would say it’s one of the best pieces of data supporting a rising sneaker market in the past year — that’s just if they remain flat, forget about if they surpass the previous mark.
Rovell: As I've always said, "It's all about the story." And if I'm buying these shoes, I don't 100 percent know these are the broken-foot shoes. Are they likely? Yes. But I couldn't sleep at night if I spent $400,000 on these. Also, it's not a positive moment in Jordan's career. I think that deducts from it further.
1960s Mickey Mantle driver’s license
Stern: I'm not going to pretend athlete’s DMV paperwork is a specialty of mine. However, weird auction items are a pretty solid source of strength for me. We’ve seen plenty of documents like this — passports, credit cards, etc. — sell for celebrities, and this is not a particularly significant one.
The same license sold for $5,040 in 2018 at Heritage, though Lelands skirts around this comp in favor of a higher sale for a post-playing days copy which sold for $21,780. Frankly, despite the lack of comprehensive information regarding the item’s provenance, I still think this surpasses $20,000.
It’s positioned in an auction with plenty of eyeballs. It’s unique enough to force those eyeballs to linger on the screen, and it’s got the name of a darling of the collecting world attached to it.
Rovell: I love this type of stuff. But Mickey looks too old in the photo. For the price this will wind up being, I need a Mantle license in the 1950s.
Original ''I Want You'' World War I recruitment poster
Stern: Here you have it, Uncle Sam recruiting men ahead of World War I in the most famous U.S. Army poster of all time. It’s a gorgeous piece and has hit its $8,000 minimum at Nate D. Sanders Auctions.
These posters have sold for up to $20,000 (Guernsey’s, 2015).
Rovell: The image is so famous, everyone knows what this is right away. The problem here is the same issue i have with posters in general. I need this thing slabbed, encased by some standard grader, and I need to know population overall and population in my grade.
I’ve said it over and over again: Markets without grading and population reports will greatly suffer over the next couple of years.
Babe Ruth and Ty Cobb signed 1939 Hall of Fame induction ticket
Stern: What an unbelievable duo to have here together. A real piece of history.
Rovell: This is a monstrous ticket. Aside from it being historic, it’s a gorgeous piece of artwork. The signatures on the back are not as rich as you would want, but it’s outrageous that someone got these two signatures on a ticket back then, and it has been saved for 88 years. There are seven full tickets and 27 stubs graded by PSA, but to have Ruth and Cobb signed, even in pencil, makes this a $25,000 ticket in my eyes.
1994 Tonya Harding worn U.S. championships and Olympics outfit
Stern: This is the outfit worn by Harding the day after the coordinated attack on Nancy Kerrigan. Kerrigan withdrew, and Harding went on to win the gold medal. She also wore it in the Olympics. Kerrigan got silver, Harding didn’t place.
Rovell: If you want infamy, you get the actual club that was used. The dress is one step removed, and I don’t think Harding’s outfit, despite being photo-matched, really means much. I would be shocked if this sells for more than $6,200.
Will Stern is a reporter and editor for cllct.
Darren Rovell is the founder of cllct.com and one of the country's leading reporters on the collectibles market. He previously worked for ESPN, CNBC and The Action Network.