Why Shohei Ohtani's 50th HR ball could top $5 million

I'm calling it now: Shohei Ohtani's 50th home run ball will sell for more than $5 million Tuesday night.

Here's why.

The value of a historic piece has more to do with the timing of when it is sold than most acknowledge.

Those who analyze any market will tell you ignoring the timing makes for bad analysis. You can't analyze a stock without comparing it to the overall economy and the chart of similar businesses. You can't look at players and their Hall of Fame credibility without analyzing the success of their own peers. You can't analyze recent card prices without understanding the factors of the COVID-19 boom.

Likewise, Ohtani's 50th home run ball does not exist in a vacuum. It is currently living in a world where, in the 32 days since he became the first player to hit 50 home runs and steal 50 bases in a single season, he has become even more relevant.

He was almost an impossible out against the Mets in the NLCS, reaching base safely 17 times, a new Dodgers postseason series record. And now Ohtani will be playing in the World Series three days after this ball sells.

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None of the iconic baseballs that have sold for huge price tags ever had this kind of relevance or timing.

With the 50th home run ball closing Tuesday at Goldin, the current bid, including buyer's premium, stands at $2.44 million.

Let's consider the record-holder: Mark McGwire's 70th home run ball from the 1998 season.

McGwire hit No. 70 on Sept. 26, 1998. The ball was auctioned off Jan. 13, 1999. That's 110 days. During that time, the St. Louis Cardinals did not make the postseason and there was no additional buzz around McGwire.

In fact, there was still a little bit of a negative halo around his admission he used Androstenedione, which later turned out to be a cover for his steroid use.

When Spawn creator Todd McFarlane revealed he was the buyer, he got millions and millions of dollars worth of free publicity — and that was in 1999, so it came from mostly newspapers.

Now, take the timing of Ohtani — only 33 days from highlight to auction — and what he has done in between. Add the international focus and social media. Forget the actual value of the ball. The publicity value of being the owner of this ball is easily north of $100 million.

It's why, despite the fact there's currently a three-way legal fight over the ball's ownership, auctioneer Ken Goldin got the parties to agree to auction it first and then worry about the proceeds.

The buyer could easily be a top Japanese company, such as Toyota, Mitsubishi, Hitachi or Sony. I also wouldn't count out New Balance, a private company making money hand over fist, and has Ohtani as its endorser. For these companies, $5 million is a daily rounding error.

Also in the mix should be the Dodgers themselves, who reportedly initially offered $300,000 for the ball. The Dodgers greatly value their history. If it doesn't fit the budget, owners Mark Walter and Todd Boehly are worth a combined $15 billion. Again, we're talking pennies in couch cushions.

And we can't leave out Ohtani himself. Players usually don't buy their own things, but he certainly has the wherewithal to participate.

Yes, the 50th home run ball is an amazing artifact of baseball history and even more so because it was part of the greatest game ever. But this is also about great timing, relevance and publicity value.

Darren Rovell is the founder of cllct.com and one of the country's leading reporters on the collectible market. He previously worked for ESPN, CNBC and The Action Network.

Why Shohei Ohtani's 50th HR ball could top $5 million

With Ohtani reaching his first World Series, timing is ideal to drive the price higher