For at least 30 years, the most forged autograph in the world has been Michael Jordan.
At third-party authenticator James Spence Authentication, vice president Jimmy Spence says he sees at least one fake MJ autograph every single day.
The percentage of Jordan signatures Spence says he fails is an astounding 95 percent — 30 percent higher than the next highest, Tiger Woods.
As retail prices for Jordan memorabilia have skyrocketed — Upper Deck sold a signed basketball for $699 in 1994; the cheapest today is $7,999 — fraudsters have swooped in like never before. And because of some holes in the authentication process, they are getting away with selling counterfeit items at record levels.
For years, Jordan's signature alone proved to be a safety measure of sorts, as his "M" and "J" were challenging to forge. But autopens got better, and so, too, did the humans. And the authenticity measures? They haven't changed.
In 1992, Upper Deck joined forces with then-Los Angeles Kings owner Bruce McNall to create Upper Deck Authenticated. The company took athletes it already had deals with — including Mickey Mantle, Reggie Jackson, Wayne Gretzky, Joe Montana and others — and came up with a "patented five-step process" to prove to collectors that signatures were real.
At the time, it seemed impressive and precedent setting.
All autographs witnessed. A notary on hand. Each item with its own number stored in a "registered secure data bank," and, of course, a tamper-proof hologram that became the hallmark of Upper Deck in 1989, when the brand debuted its first set of baseball cards.
The company might be a shell of its former self from the days when it held all four U.S. pro sports licenses — as it hasn't had the NBA and MLB since 2009, and it lost the NFL in 2017. But one thing it did not lose was the star power on its Upper Deck Authenticated side, keeping Jordan and Tiger Woods, Gretzky and LeBron James (until recently).
If Upper Deck today still has among the best authentication systems, it's not because the company has gotten better; it's because others haven't evolved, either.
"I wouldn't say our program doesn't work," Upper Deck president Jason Masherah said. "The vast majority of what we have done absolutely does. I would say 10 percent of what we've done doesn't have full database authentication, and that's what gives us problems."
How a fake autograph becomes 'authentic'
Wesley Gretah is a longtime Jordan collector who was asked by Eric Pace, the original administrator of the "Michael Jordan Memorabilia Collectors" page on Facebook, to help manage the social-media page.
After the two had been barraged by so many questions about the authenticity of Jordan signatures, they started G.O.A.T. Authentics in early 2022. The goal was to solely authenticate Jordan memorabilia, a business they found had an economy of its own.
Gretah and Pace took cllct through the operation, giving us specific numbers they have identified as compromised, with the promise not to share them to contribute to more fraud.
That 10 percent Masherah referred to? That's all the unscrupulous types need.
Forgers learn the group of numbers associated with Jordan signings that had on-site authentication, where the items didn't come back to Upper Deck headquarters for imaging. For example, numbers associated with items Jordan signed at his Flight Camp become essential tools in the fraud. Fraudsters fake holograms with those numbers — which aren't in the company's online database — but when UD customer service is called or e-mailed, representatives confirm the item as authentic.
Gretah and Pace showed how scammers also know of numbers in the database that correspond to a stock photo, taking the pressure off them to fake sign an item in the exact place because there isn't a picture.
Gretah showed cllct the picture of a Jordan-signed shoe, which had recently been pulled from an auction, after he told the auction house the item had a fake certificate of authentication and fake signature. The number, however, was good.
Gretah said he read the number to the Upper Deck customer service rep, and, on number alone, she confirmed it was indeed a real sneaker signed by Jordan in Santa Barbara in 2016. Gretah then reached out via email and received a message back the number he had given was associated with an authentic Jordan signature.
"That email, which can be edited, is now as good as a COA," Gretah said.
Masherah says that shouldn't happen.
"We require seeing both the hologram and the cert, otherwise we can't verify the authenticity," Masherah said.
Gretah doesn't buy that.
"I've been collecting Upper Deck items for 30 years, and not once have they asked me for a picture of the cert to this day," Gretah said. "And, if that was the case, then why were they issuing new letters for lost certs years ago?"
Fraudsters also use third-party authenticators in a two-for-one switcheroo.
It often goes like this:
A scam artist will buy an authentic Jordan signed item with a UDA hologram.
That person then buys another item that matches that item and fakes an autograph on it.
They send the real one, that came with the hologram, to an autograph authenticator such as PSA, JSA or Beckett without the hologram.
PSA, JSA or Beckett certify the item.
The frausters then take the fake item and pair it with the real hologram and sell that.
Gretah says scammers also send the fake items with real holograms to third parties because the holograms make them more likely to say it's real.
"I have tested this with both Beckett quick opinion and in-person submission," Gretah said. "It is very apparent with some of the fake items that have horrendous fake signatures and a fake or real hologram."
Beckett's Steve Grad told cllct that each signature is looked at on its own, and a hologram does not affect judgment.
The problem gets worse
The fake autograph business has ensnared every major player in the hobby.
JSA has found fake certs. PSA, Beckett and Fanatics have discovered fake holograms. Fanatics places its hologram on any item it sells — from what it buys from Upper Deck to the secondary market — leading some to believe the company is authenticating the item, when it is only using it for tracking.
As if hologram fraud wasn't enough, the fake signatures being produced today are better than ever.
Like Mickey Mantle's, Michael Jordan's signature was always a challenge. That's no longer the case.
"It's gotten harder and harder to differentiate real from fake," G.O.A.T. Authentics' Pace said. "For the last two years, there has been incredible autopen, and even skilled people doing it by hand that we think is coming out of China."
Grad told cllct he also thinks the fakes are coming out of China.
But if you have the signature, you need to get the same items that Upper Deck has. That, too, has become much more simple.
Throughout the 1990s and into the early 2000s, Jordan would sign Champion jerseys, so to forge a Jordan jersey, you would have to find a good one on eBay.
Gretah says since 2008, Upper Deck has used Mitchell & Ness, and those jerseys are available in mass quantity to anyone. Air Jordan shoes are also easily sourced in mass quantities.
The watchdogs bark
G.O.A.T. charges $125 for an authentication of a Jordan autograph, which comes with a letter, but Gretah and Pace are so sick of the fake Jordan market they frequently email and call auction houses to tell them they should take down fraudulent items they have posted. But Gretah said auction houses often take other third parties' word for it and keep items in the auction.
In the last Goldin auction that ended Labor Day, Gretah said he convinced Goldin to take down four of the six signed Jordan shoes he said had fake Jordan signatures. The ones with the Beckett letters stayed.
"They didn't acknowledge they were fake to me," Gretah said. "They just went ahead and did it behind the scenes."
For his part, Ken Goldin told cllct, at some point, there has to be some trust in the system, especially when there's a traceable number on a UDA hologram and real Beckett certificate.
"If we are only depending on the numbers, say goodbye to the market," Gretah counters.
But Goldin isn't alone, as almost every auction house has sold fakes, according to Gretah.
Gretah told VSA Auctions that a signed Jordan jersey that sold for $5,522 on Thursday night was fake.
"We thought the jersey was a little goofy, so we took the extra step of getting Beckett to look at it," VSA owner Steve Jensen said. "What are we supposed to do beyond that?"
Pristine Auctions, Gretah says, has been among the most responsive.
"I've been seeing an alarming rise of good autograph forgeries of reputable holograms (such as Upper Deck Authenticated)," Pristine's owner Jared Kavlie said. "Upper Deck is particularly difficult because their database is unreliable. It's also difficult because authenticity is not an exact science, and even top experts make mistakes."
Kavlie showed cllct a Jordan signed basketball that looked off, that a third-party authenticator failed, and sure enough the number matched up to an exact picture in the Upper Deck database.
Masherah said challenges with authenticity have not affected business for UDA.
"We've actually seen an increase in people buying directly from us because they know it is real," he said. "Every company has had its challenges, but we are seen seen as the best in the industry. Look at Steph Curry, who signs for many companies. Collectors pay a premium for autographs that come from us."
But Masherah does say UDA's authentication program could use an upgrade.
"We will be unveiling the start of a new program next year," Masherah said. "That program will help people who have the products already in hand to better authenticate and verify them."
At least initially, it won't help the crowd looking at buying items in auctions, or though the biggest seller of them all, eBay.
Gretah estimates roughly 30-35 percent of Michael Jordan signatures with Upper Deck Authentication on eBay are fake. He said he has tried to contact the company, to no avail.
eBay does have a policy against counterfeits, but the company has not been held legally responsible in the United States for its vendors. The company did recently lose a case in France over selling LVMH counterfeits in which it had to pay $40 million.
Darren Rovell is the founder of cllct.com and one of the country's leading reporters on the collectible market. He previously worked for ESPN, CNBC and The Action Network.