The Juan Soto sweepstakes are finally over.
Following aggressive pursuits from the Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, Toronto Blue Jays and both New York franchises, Soto opted to swap the Yankees for the Mets on Sunday night by signing the largest contract in pro sports history.
Soto’s record 15-year, $765 million deal, which includes an opt-out after five seasons, can expand to more than $800 million in total value should he decide to stay.
Assuming Soto opts in for the rest of the deal, his future on the field is likely set. But what about his sports card market?
At face value, trading the Yankees for the Mets is an agreement with a team that hasn't performed as well on the field and a move away from baseball's most collectible franchise.
The reality, however, is where Soto plays might not matter, and he could even land among the franchise’s most collectible stars of all time if his current trajectory continues.
Years before he ever put on pinstripes, Soto was a hobby favorite playing for a Nationals franchise that has finished above .500 just eight times since moving from Montreal to Washington in 2005. Though the Nationals won the World Series in 2019, the team finished no higher than 11th (2019) in attendance during Soto’s five-year run, according to ESPN.
One of the top chase cards from a 2018 rookie class that also included Shohei Ohtani and Ronald Acuna Jr., Soto’s market was ignited, along with much of the hobby, in 2020, 2021 and 2022.
According to Card Ladder’s Soto Index, which tracks 133 key cards, his market peaked in May 2022, well before being traded from Washington to a Padres team with World Series aspirations.
Soto has already become one of the most graded athletes ever, according to GemRate, with a total population of roughly 232,000 cards ranking 34th all-time among all athletes and 17th among baseball players.
Soto’s 2018 Topps Update Base has been his most popular card with nearly 41,000 total graded examples and more than 23,000 PSA 10s.
As expected, Soto cards sell extremely well on the secondary market, too. According to Market Movers, the more than 22,200 Soto sales tracked over the last year rank 51st among all athletes and 14th among baseball players.
If Soto could sustain so much hobby interest with the Nationals, it’s not unrealistic to think he can do the same or better for a Mets franchise that has finished above .500 four times and in the top 10 in attendance just twice since it last made the World Series in 2015.
Despite mixed results over the last decade-plus, the trajectory of the Mets has changed drastically under owner Steve Cohen, who purchased a controlling stake in the team in October 2020.
In the four full seasons since, the Mets have finished with the highest payroll in baseball twice, according to Spotrac, and expect to be near the top again in 2025 with Soto in the lineup.
Truthfully, Soto doesn’t even need to gain popularity in the hobby to land among the Mets’ most collectible players ever over the course of his contract. He simply needs to replicate some of what he already has done.
According to GemRate, Soto already has more graded cards than any player who has ever played for the Mets not named Nolan Ryan or Willie Mays.
Mays, of course, is largely associated with the 21 years he spent with the Giants more than the two he spent with the Mets. Though Ryan spent his first five seasons with New York, the flamethrower is often associated with his extended runs for the Angels and Astros.
In terms of secondary-market price, the only player primarily associated with the Mets who can compete with Soto is Tom Seaver.
According to Card Ladder, the highest public sale for a Soto card is the $273,080 paid for his 2016 Bowman Chrome Prospect Autographs Red Refractor PSA 7 at Goldin in 2021. That price is only beaten by a 1967 Tom Seaver PSA 10 rookie, which sold for $344,400 at Goldin in 2021.
Other all-time great Mets simply don’t compare.
The highest public sale for a Gary Carter card is the $56,153 paid at Memory Lane in 2022. The most paid for a Jerry Koosman card is $600,000 at Goldin in 2021, though that was for the lone PSA 10 copy of his 1968 Topps rookie that he shares with Ryan, so it’s debatable whether that counts for the Mets.
High sales for other all-time greats, including Darryl Strawberry ($2,550), Keith Hernandez ($3,242), David Wright ($6,600), Dwight Gooden ($10,000) and Mike Piazza ($12,108), don’t come close.
Of the players on the current roster most associated with the franchise, high sales for Pete Alonso ($28,800), Kodai Senga ($17,080) and Francisco Alvarez ($6,250) also don’t compare.
While big-market, title-contending teams certainly still carry much of the card market, it’s far easier for collectors to support players wherever they are in 2024.
According to sales tracked by Market Movers, stars such as Pittsburgh’s Paul Skenes, Cincinnati’s Elly De La Cruz, Kansas City’s Bobby Witt Jr. and Baltimore’s Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday were all among the top 10 of sales volume over the last year.
Before he landed with the Dodgers, Ohtani was the most-collected player in baseball without ever making the playoffs with the Angels.
Soto was ultra popular among collectors before he ever landed in a big market, and now he has a chance to be one of the most popular players ever for one of MLB’s most storied franchises.
Ben Burrows is a reporter and editor for cllct.