The Pittsburgh Pirates made waves Friday when the team offered 30 years of season tickets in return for Paul Skenes’ Rookie Debut Patch.
With a value ranging from $240,000 to $2 million — depending on the location of the tickets — the market for the newly crowned National League Rookie of the Year was set at a lofty price point.
How lofty?
Well, it depends: How dominant will Skenes’ career be?
The moment Paul Skenes was named the NL Rookie of the Year ???? pic.twitter.com/M6gu4I7dnb
— MLB (@MLB) November 18, 2024
When it’s all said and done, could he retire with an MVP, two World Series rings, three Cy Youngs, 10 All-Stars and a Triple Crown?
If the answer is yes, that would mean he would be roughly comparable to Clayton Kershaw, whose rookie card sold this weekend for a record $123,221.22.
As we’ve long seen in the market’s valuation for modern players vs. vintage, and, in this case, hyper-modern vs. modern, the price for potential outpaces objective career statistics and accolades by leaps and bounds.
The current market for Skenes’ top rookie card is not only baking in the future career of one of the greatest pitchers in MLB history, but, with the lower bound at nearly double the price of Kershaw’s top sale, placing Skenes’ potential above the historic career of Kershaw.
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Of course, if you project things out nearly two decades, to match the length of time between Kershaw’s rookie season and today, prices will be inflated purely as a result of the value of the dollar, but that’s not really the point.
What we see now, at the end of Kershaw’s career, despite having fulfilled all of the most extravagant expectations for any young pitching phenom, is that he’s still valued below a player with a single season of professional ball in the books.
How long until Skenes is cast aside for the next highly touted prospect? Two seasons? Ten? Regardless, it has never been more clear the market is more interested in the idea of a Hall of Hame career than the reality of one.
There’s no reason to think Skenes will buck that trend — no matter what he does on a baseball field for the next 20 years.
Will Stern is a reporter and editor for cllct.