Considered one of the weakest drafts in recent years, a poor 2024 NBA Draft could also mean a slow cycle of cards for basketball collectors.
Without a clear No. 1 pick this year, cllct looked back at the top picks who have become the biggest hobby flops since 2000.
Kwame Brown
The No. 1 pick by the Washington Wizards in 2001, Brown is considered by many to be one of the biggest busts ever.
Under the direction of team president Michael Jordan, the Wizards made draft history by selecting Brown as the first top overall pick directly out of high school. Brown immediately struggled as a rookie, averaging just 4.5 points and 3.5 rebounds per game.
Brown, chosen two spots ahead of Hall of Famer and two-time NBA champion Pau Gasol, would go on to play just 607 games for seven different teams while averaging double-digit scoring just once.
Decades later, PSA has graded fewer than 1,200 of Brown’s cards and his 2001 Topps Chrome rookie can be found raw for a few bucks.
Andrew Bogut
Unlike Brown, Bogut had a solid career, though not quite what teams would hope from a No. 1 overall pick. Selected by Milwaukee in 2005, the Australian big man who played collegiately at Utah landed on the NBA All-Rookie team but played 70-plus games just three times.
Though Bogut would go on to win an NBA title with the Warriors in 2015, he was never the same after breaking his hand, spraining his wrist and dislocating his elbow in a gruesome fall in 2010.
Nearly 20 years later, Bogut’s best rookie cards aren’t cheap, but they are far from what could have been. One of Bogut’s finest cards, a 2005 Upper Deck Exquisite Collection RPA PSA 8, sold for less than $1,300 earlier this year.
Outside of cards from ultra high-end products, collectors can score Bogut rookie autos for less than $20. PSA has graded a little more than 700 Bogut cards since 2005.
Andrea Bargnani
Selected by the Toronto Raptors in 2006, Bargnani — the first European player taken No. 1 overall — was a disappointing top pick but had a decent career by most standards.
Runner-up for Rookie of the Year to Brandon Roy, Bargnani would finish his career averaging 14 points and five rebounds per game across 10 seasons.
Despite being a highly skilled big man, Bargnani never really caught on in a major way with collectors. To date, Bargnani has a total PSA graded population of just 297 with a combined 48 between his flagship 2006 Topps and 2006 Topps Chrome rookies.
His high-end cards never really connected either — a rookie Upper Deck Logoman 1/1 sold for just $1,580 in 2012, and another 2008-09 Logoman 1/1 sold for $769 in 2009.
Bargnani’s Topps Chrome rookie autographs can be scored for less than $20 today.
Greg Oden
The top pick by Portland in 2007, Oden is best known for an underwhelming career plagued by injuries — and for being picked immediately ahead of Kevin Durant, Al Horford and Mike Conley.
Oden would finish his career with just 105 games played in seven seasons after missing four total seasons to knee injuries. Concerned over Oden’s injury history, many collectors almost immediately pivoted to Durant as the primary focus from the 2007 class if they weren’t already there to begin with.
Durant has since gone on to be popular among many collectors, though he’s far from a widespread favorite.
Years later, PSA has graded just over 1,000 cards featuring Oden, and his cards have completely collapsed in price. After selling for $700-plus back in 2007, collectors can snag rookie autographs of Oden in 2024 for less than $15.
John Wall
The top pick by the Wizards in 2010, Wall has gone on to become one of the best players in franchise history. And though his passing and scoring could make him dynamic enough to win over collectors, Wall has never maintained a particularly strong market outside of some super collectors during the trading card industry’s pandemic boom.
To date, PSA has graded a little more than 3,000 of Wall’s cards, and all five of his highest sales tracked by Card Ladder occurred in 2021 or 2022 during the hobby’s massive run-up in price.
Beyond prices reaching the thousands for highly desirable and high-end cards such as Gold Prizms and Logoman patches, Wall doesn’t have a terribly robust market of mid-tier cards. Wall has a Donruss Rated Rookies card, but he doesn’t have a flagship Topps, Topps Chrome or Prizm rookie card.
The super collectors have plenty to choose from, but the typical hobbyist likely isn’t inspired.
Anthony Bennett
Bennett also ranks among the biggest busts in NBA history — and his selection by the Cavaliers with the No. 1 pick in 2013 was stunning at the time. There are plenty of athletes who have the skill but lack the personality to win over collectors. However, Bennett had neither.
Bennett finished his career playing in just 151 games for four teams in four seasons. To date, PSA has graded just 60 cards featuring Bennett, and many of his most expensive sales, tracked by Card Ladder, were completed during the pandemic boom rather than during his rookie season.
Collectors can score Bennett’s flagship 2013-14 Prizm Base rookie for less than $2.
Andrew Wiggins
Unlike several No. 1 picks on this list, Wiggins was far from a flop from the beginning. Cleveland traded Wiggins to the Timberwolves less than two months after drafting him as part of the Kevin Love trade, and while he wasn’t a superstar, Wiggins had a solid following among collectors.
Joel Embiid has been the star of the 2014 NBA Draft so far, though Wiggins has had plenty of strong sales over the years. A 2014-15 National Treasures RPA sold for $16,222 back in 2015, and a 2014-15 Flawless RPA 1/1 sold for $10,100 a month later.
Wiggins’ market faded in Minnesota but got a resurgence after he landed with Golden State and won a title as a two-way role player. Role players aren’t hobby stars, however, and outside of the occasional ultra high-end sale, most of Wiggins’ flagship rookies are less than a No. 1 pick should command.
His flagship 2014-15 Prizm Base PSA 10 rookie can be purchased today for less than $15.
Ben Simmons
Many collectors expected Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid to be a dynamic pair that could deliver multiple championships to Philadelphia. Embiid has held up his end of the bargain as a superstar, but Simmons' Philly tenure ended disastrously.
PSA has graded more than 30,000 cards featuring Simmons, and Card Ladder has tracked a variety of five-figure sales even before the COVID-19 pandemic.
A lockdown defender with incredible passing instincts, Simmons’ status in the hobby waned as it became clear his offensive game was more Rajon Rondo than Chris Paul or Steph Curry.
Once sold for as much as $3,048 in 2020, Simmon’s 2016 Prizm Silver PSA 10 sold in May for just $18.
Markelle Fultz
The second of Philadelphia’s back-to-back No. 1 picks, Fultz had plenty of traction early, but he’s likely best known among collectors for being one of the major flops in what is otherwise known as an extremely strong draft overall.
Beyond Fultz and Lonzo Ball going in the top two spots, the 2017 NBA Draft has provided the hobby with favorites such as Jayson Tatum and Donovan Mitchell. De’Aaron Fox, Lauri Markkanen and Bam Adebayo also have all been popular among collectors.
Fultz’s 2017 Prizm Silver PSA 10 once sold for as much as $750 during the market peak in 2021, but it can be found for $10 or less in 2024.
Deandre Ayton
Like Fultz, Ayton’s status here is more predicated on the players chosen afterward. The top pick by Phoenix in 2018, Ayton was quickly followed in the draft by Marvin Balley III — an actual complete flop — and then a trio of hobby favorites in Luka Doncic, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Trae Young.
Even further down the draft are hobby stars such as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Michael Porter Jr. and most recently Jalen Brunson. Even Portland’s Anfernee Simons has been a popular high-upside purchase for collectors looking to eventually flip for a profit.
Ayton, meanwhile, has been good but not great. Even with a draft filled with legitimate hobby stars, Ayton remained popular among collectors but has now seen his market slowly fade after being traded to Portland.
Two of Ayton’s 2018 National Treasures Logoman RPAs sold in 2022 for $20,477 and $19,254, respectively, but he hasn’t had a solo card sell for more than $6,000 over the last two years, per Card Ladder.
Ayton’s 2018 Prizm Silver PSA 10 sold for nearly $700 back in 2020, but it went for just $21 in June.
Ben Burrows is a reporter and editor for cllct.