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The volatility of modern cards — and the kids who hold them

At The National, children can be power brokers — but do they understand that power?

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The Breakers Pavilion at The National Sports Collectors Convention was one of the most high-energy spots in Cleveland this year. (cllct photo by Kevin Jackson)

Following the National Sports Collectors Convention in Cleveland, I spent all last week trying to put my thoughts into context. But truthfully, there are too many potential avenues to try to fit into a single lane.

My first takeaway, and one which truly bewildered me, was the amount of kids, some as young as 10 or 11, strutting around the convention center with briefcases filled with Patrick Mahomes or Victor Wembanyama cards worth thousands of dollars.

In some ways, collecting is an equal opportunistic endeavor. Anyone has the chance to open a pack of cards and pull that special one-of-one. So, when thousands of mini Gordon Gekkos open up their aluminum briefcases like mini bank vaults, it’s difficult not to notice.

These kids, possibly still in elementary school, can be real power brokers. When trade nights happened, one child, who couldn’t be older than 12, approached me looking to deal.

I didn’t have any desire to buy, nor did I have any cards to trade or sell. But when this happened, my mindset immediately shifted. Beforehand, it was that these children possessed odd opportunities to have seats at the table.

Scott Rogowsky tells cllct's Darren Rovell that modern baseball cards are a 'young man's game.'

CLLCT'S COVERAGE OF THE NATIONAL:

But after seeing this convention, and seeing the market of modern cards, a few points stand out.

The first, and most important, is no child should be marching around a convention center filled with thousands of people, with valuable cards in their possession and no guardian present. While the kids might understand the cards hold value, they certainly do not understand the life-changing, real-world implications of obtaining a $40,000 baseball card.

It would not surprise me in the slightest if adults attended the convention with the sole purpose of trying to swindle a child out of a valuable card and into an awful negotiation. As knowledgeable as some of these kids might be about the hobby, they are not going to have the acumen in a negotiation against an adult with degrees in law or finance or economics.

There’s a reason high-profile negotiations in the real world are often handled by educated experts.

Kids also lack a true understanding of the value of anything vintage. I know for a fact I didn’t understand it when I was 17 or 18, let alone 11 or 12.

And because of that, these kids are focused on buying and selling what they know and love, modern cards. Wemby, Shohei Ohtani, Mahomes.

The value of anything is based on supply and demand, and while other factors play a part, those two are mainstays., The reason a Honus Wagner T-206 is the most valuable card in the world is because of its scarcity. The supply is extremely low, and we know for a fact the market will not suddenly be flooded with Wagner T-206 cards.

Despite the supply being high for a 1989 Ken Griffey Jr. rookie, the demand for that card, at the time, was possibly as high as any card in history, and it also has a unique story. Still, a PSA 10 Griffey will never amount to the prices of those like the T-206 Wagner, a ‘52 Topps Mickey Mantle, a ‘48 Leaf Jackie Robinson, etc.

The other key factor to consider with vintage players is their stories have already been told. Many of these players’ careers ended more than 50 years ago.

For a legend like Jackie Robinson, who last played in 1956, we know his career and his incredible story. He broke MLB’s color barrier, faced the most difficult path of anyone in sports history and finished his career as one of the greatest players to ever take the field. The price of his card might rise or dip a touch, but it will ultimately remain stable.

The volatility of modern cards is drastic, where it is largely based on potential. Jackson Holliday has recently been called back up to the majors, and the Orioles prospect is succeeding. But before this recent stint, his only time in the big leagues was abysmal. Still, before his call-up, his cards were selling for more than $10,000. One expert told cllct in April that his debut patch card could sell for $250,000.

Upon his demotion back down to Triple-A, his card prices plummeted as well. The market for modern players simply isn’t as stable as for vintage players, even if they’re stars. Ultimately, the best time to sell a card for modern baseball players is before they even make their MLB debuts.

Are modern cards more aesthetic? Yes. They incorporate patches and autographs and simply look nicer than a card from 1919 attached to a tobacco box. But does the quality make up for the fact Trevor Lawrence might have 30 different one-of-ones in a single release?

But kids will still be drawn to the modern players, as that is what they see on TV, in fantasy sports leagues and in their daily lives. They don’t understand market volatility.

And so, ultimately, every time I walked around the convention center and saw kids opening their briefcases to a loot of modern-day cards, I thought about them not understanding their current value in real-world applications, but also not comprehending the potential floor for these cards to lose their value and what that could mean for the kids’ futures.

The National is terrific for people to come together with a common passion, but I worry about those who don’t have the knowledge, or someone with the know-how, to protect themselves in a complicated industry where every minute detail matters.

Matt Liberman is a reporter and video producer for cllct.