When hearing about the record-breaking sale of a case of 1979-80 O-Pee-Chee hockey cards for $2.5 million, many immediately asked whether the buyer would be — or should be — opening the new purchase.
Ignoring the fact the case itself is, indeed, open (it’s the packs inside the boxes within the case which remain unopened), it’s a good question.
Should the new owner rip open the packs and chase Wayne Gretzky's prized rookie cards?
A close look at the possibilities and expected values reveal the choice is obvious.
There are two crucial elements to consider when evaluating the potential market value of rare cards, packs and boxes such as these:
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The sheer magnitude of this find would completely reset the ecosystem. Especially if introduced to the market in one fell swoop, the sudden rise in supply could be impactful enough to significantly harm prices.
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Just because a card has remained sealed in a pack does not mean it’s going to grade a PSA 10. In this case, the odds of getting a 10 are astronomically long.
Steve Hart of Baseball Card Exchange (BBCE), the go-to authenticator for sealed and unopened wax, who was tasked with authenticating the 16 boxes from the case, has as much experience as anyone in the industry when it comes to this age-old question.
Since opening BBCE in 1990 all of the most significant unopened pieces in the hobby have come through Hart’s business.
“When it comes to unopened vintage, say back when cards were still issued in wax packs, most of the time the value is in having the item still in its original unopened form,” Hart said.
While noting that more modern products, particularly those at lower price points, are typically opened for fun and a bit of a thrill, Hart says the collectors lean toward keeping product in its original unopened form as the value rises.
An excellent illustration of this preference comes from the 1952 Topps baseball “brick” of eight unopened wax packs.
The brick came from a find in Seattle which included other examples, one of which reportedly yielded a PSA 10 Andy Pafko (No. 1) card. While the knowledge these packs came from low series, meaning they were not candidates to contain the famed Mickey Mantle card, PSA 10s from that set are incredibly valuable — even for little-known players thanks to set collectors.
Regardless, collectors appeared to abstain and withstand the temptation. In 2023, the brick sold for $852,000.
“Collectors like having things in the original form as issued,” Hart said. “So, with the 1979-80 O-Pee-Chee case, the value and price for these items are what it’s worth in its unopened form.”
But what happens if the owner decided to go hunting Gretzkys?
After all, the estimated 27 Gretzky rookies hiding within the wax boxes are the entire reason anyone cares about this case in the first place.
Of the two PSA 10s, the most recent sale fetched $3.75 million. For one card. Nearly $1.25 million more than the price of the case. So what gives? Why isn’t the case simply worth $101.25 million?
Because a card doesn’t simply come out of the pack as a guaranteed PSA 10. Even today, of any release of the 2024 calendar year, there will be plenty of submissions that receive grades of PSA 9 or lower despite being carefully protected from the pack to the grading room. That’s because of any number of possible defects that arise in the standard production process, like centering issues.
Now imagine the technology used to create the 1979 O-Pee-Chee set. Hardly any emerged from production as a perfect card.
Surprisingly, there is actually a very apt precedent.
In 2020, a sealed case of 1986 Fleer Basketball cards, famous for including the Michael Jordan rookie card, sold for nearly $1.8 million.
The case was estimated to house around 39 Jordans, as well as an additional 39 Jordan stickers. At the time, a PSA 10 Jordan rookie card was about $75,000, while a sticker was around $20,000.
Without even taking all the other cards from the set into account, merely glancing at the possibility of 39 PSA 10 Jordans at $75,000 would yield nearly $3 million — already more than enough to cover the case.
Clearly, the lower price tag took into account the extremely long odds of finding so many PSA 10 Jordans.
“The O-Pee-Chee example of the Gretzky rookie is plagued with all kinds of condition sensitive issues,” Hart said. “Centering on these cards can be brutal, color and focus can be off, print dots and white spots in the background of the card are an issue.”
All that is before sitting in a box relatively unprotected for decades.
Today, the odds of finding a future PSA 10 among the 27 Gretzky rookies? Roughly the same as being struck by lightning while opening a case of 1979 O-Pee-Chee cards with Wayne Gretzky.
“[T]he chances of opening these boxes up and getting a Gretzky PSA 10 is very, very, very difficult,” Hart said, strongly advising against opening these boxes. “The value in items such as this are because they are in the original, factory issued form.”
Even getting a PSA 9 is quite difficult, according to Hart.
PSA has graded a total of 13,887 copies of Gretzky's rookie card from O-Pee-Chee. Of those, just two have been graded PSA 10. There are 95 PSA 9 examples, 824 PSA 8s, 1,416 PSA 7s and 2,156 PSA 4s (the most common grade).
This distribution is not quite instructive for the case of O-Pee-Chee as there is a selection bias for the types of cards people submit (that is why there are more PSA 4s than PSA 1s) as well as the lack of precedent for pack-fresh cards reaching the population report.
While impossible, it’s still worth noting that in a scenario in which all 27 are graded a PSA 10 and market dynamics fail to apply, leaving the going rate at $3.75 million, that would result in more than $100 million.
What if every Gretzky rookie was a PSA 9? The last sale of a PSA 9 came in September for $122,000. If all 27 were to receive that grade, it adds up to $3,294,000 — a sizable return from the price of the case. But, as Hart notes, PSA 9s are no walk in the park either. One could really only expect a handful at best.
Now, we get realistic, as in all likelihood, the condition would be a mix of mid-grade and a few lucky high-grade copies.
The most recent prices for the card in the following grades:
- PSA 8: $15,000
- PSA 7: $5,581.61
- PSA 6: $2,209.37
- PSA 5: $1,443.34
With PSA 10s likely off the table, and the chance of more than a few PSA 9s unlikely, it’s essentially settled as far as the odds are concerned: Opening the packs with any expectation of profit is a poor decision, unless the goal is squandering the entire value of the case.
Arguably the best option for splitting up the case would be selling the boxes.
There is no worry regarding the potential of a poor condition grade, they have all been certified by the industry standard BBCE, and they come along with impeccable provenance — one would imagine there would be a premium applied to boxes boasting this pedigree.
In 2023, a comparable box sold for $186,000.
There are three scenarios price-wise that could determine total value. The first and most obvious is simply to use that number as the value of each box. The second is to apply a “provenance premium” assuming collectors would pay more for these boxes due to their story. We will call that $200,000. The third accounts for the supply shock: While it would be quite ill-conceived to attempt to sell 16 at once, rather than over the course of a few years, we will use $150,000 as a lower bound.
Using those numbers, we see the following totals (multiplying each box price by 16):
For the supply-shock baseline price, that brings in $2.4 million. Just short of the price paid for the case, but if we take this as a worst case, it’s quite encouraging for the owner to have have a built-in floor that could nearly make the investment whole.
Taking the comparable sale example, we arrive at $2.98 million. Just like that, a tidy ROI of nearly $500,000.
The provenance assumption of $200,000 per box — a number decided based on simplicity rather than deep analysis — achieves $3.2 million. Goodbye O-Pee-Chee case, hello five-bedroom, four-bathroom house in Bagersville, Indiana.
For those wondering, it’s on five acres of land and has a lovely home office. Thanks, Zillow.
Unlike boxes, which are mostly comparable to one another, sealed packs are graded like cards, and there are quite few options to assist in the data here. If the boxes are opened, and the 768 packs are inside as expected, the condition begins to play a crucial role.
PSA has graded 501 total unopened packs. Only seven have been graded PSA 10 (none of which show up in public auction records). The most common grade is PSA 9, with a population of 251. That is followed by 161 PSA 8s, 79 PSA 7s, 2 PSA 6s and 1 PSA 5.
Considering the fresh nature of these packs, it feels like a safe assumption that they should grade as high as, if not higher, then the most common grade of PSA 9. A comparable pack sold for $3,240 in September.
With little to go on relating to PSA 10 prices, we will use the PSA 9 comp as our guide, which brings us to $2,488,320. Just below the purchase price of the case and that’s assuming all PSA 9s.
While the potential for a PSA 10 pack (or multiple) is in play, as are lower grades, like a PSA 7 which would get you around $1,200. It would seem this is not the winning strategy.
Ultimately and unsurprisingly, the best option is to sit tight, make no sudden moves, and find a nice way to display the massive case of cards.
Will Stern is a reporter and editor for cllct.