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As buyer of Ohtani's 50th HR ball waits to come forward, value plummets by hour

Publicity value is rapidly decreasing as we move further away from Tuesday night's auction

Cover Image for As buyer of Ohtani's 50th HR ball waits to come forward, value plummets by hour
Shohei Ohtani acknowledges a standing ovation in Miami after hitting his 50th homer. (Credit: Getty Images)

Editor's Note: Shortly after this piece was published Thursday, Goldin Auctions founder Ken Goldin announced he would reveal the winner of the auction for Shohei Ohtani's 50th home run baseball later Thursday. cllct will have additional coverage of that announcement.

Shohei Ohtani's 50th home run ball sold for $4.3 million Tuesday night, setting an all-time record price for any baseball. And with each passing hour, I'm more and more shocked the buyer has not come forward.

In my 25 years of covering the collectible space, I have found baseballs are among the least emotional items, as far as what elicits the greatest reaction amongst the high-priced memorabilia. Balls, to be frank, are really boring. This baseball looks very other game-used MLB ball.

It's one of the reasons why balls seem to depreciate at a greater rate as the high-end market has exploded.

Even a milestone baseball that has done really well — the ball from Game 6 of the 1986 World Series that went through Bill Buckner's legs — didn't do as well as the buyers thought it would. Charlie Sheen bought it in 1992 for $64,000 and sold it to singer/songwriter Seth Swirsky in 2000 for $64,000. Eleven years later, Swirsky thought he would get a bid of $1 million on eBay. It didn't happen. The ball eventually sold a year later, to eventual New York Mets owner Steve Cohen, for $418,250.

And that's a success story for a historic baseball.

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For everything balls are not, they do offer a lopsided publicity value. While everyday auctions — even ones that are worth millions — don't particularly yield much publicity value, balls do when they are tied to big moments. It has become expected to talk about the people — who caught it, sold it and won it.

On Monday, I predicted the bidding for Ohtani's 50th had a chance to hit $5 million. Not because I thought the Ohtani ball was worth that, but because of the timing. With the auction being held just 33 days after he hit it and his performance since then, leading to a World Series appearance, it was kismet. Everyone was talking about this baseball.

The ball's real value, in my opinion, was not more than $1 million. The publicity value? $50 million-plus. With the stories coming out, immediately disclosing you are the winner, would shoot you into the moment and skyrocket whatever business you are in.

As the hours away from the auction tick down, the value precipitously declines. As of this writing, some 30 hours post-auction, that $50 million in publicity value is closer to $10 million. By the time we get to the weekend, college football and the NFL games, it'll be down to $5 million. And it's only that because there's still a legal battle between three people who claim to have caught the ball to talk about.

One of the underbidders knew the publicity value. His name is Yusuke Tanaka, and he has been sharing his ride to win the ball, albeit in Japanese, on Twitter. Tanaka is connected to a company that distributes Reebok branded products in Japan. He said his goal was to win the ball, share it with the world and then return it to Ohtani.

If Tanaka won, the tactic would undoubtedly have been shared with Reebok owners, U.S.-based ABG, and the brand would have likely seen the biggest lift since they bought the company two years ago. Can you imagine Reebok, a competitor to Ohtani-endorsed New Balance, using the ball to ride the wave of energy associated with Ohtani?

Todd McFarlane was indeed a baseball fan, and it's why he spent so much money, including $3.05 million on Mark McGwire's 70th home run ball from the great race with Sammy Sosa in 1998. When McFarlane was told some 20 years later that the McGwire and Sosa balls he bought, were likely worth a tenth of what he paid, McFarlane didn't seem to care.

Why?

Because he already amortized the cost of what he paid. Even in the old days of media, as the Internet was just catching on and social media didn't exist, McFarlane got tens of millions of dollars in publicity. And it greatly helped him.

Just five years before the Spawn creator bought the ball, he launched McFarlane Toys. Buying the balls gave him immediate credibility with MLB and the union and, before long, he was selling licensed sports figurines — a serious upgrade to the quality of the last mass effort, Starting Lineup.

That credibility also extended to the end buyer. Sports fans who weren't familiar with Spawn immediately connected McFarlane with the miletstone baseballs in a way that said, "This guy is the ultimate fan." In the end, the way McFarlane used the ball for credibility and relevancy, was worth so much, the actual worth of the balls themselves was immaterial.

The buyer of the Ohtani ball is, of course, welcome to stay as quiet as he or she wants. But, with each hour of quiet, the odds of the ball being worth the price diminishes.

By next week, the opportunity the opportunity will be long gone.

Darren Rovell is the founder of cllct.com and one of the country's leading reporters on the collectible market. He previously worked for ESPN, CNBC and The Action Network.