High-end auction sales declined in second quarter of 2024, report shows

Vintage cards also had a rough quarter, but have held up well over last two years

Altan Insights released its Sports Collectibles Market Report for the second quarter of 2024 on Thursday, providing key findings on the state of the market for collectors across sports cards, jerseys, photography and more.

At the high-end of the price spectrum, Altan reported a 20 percent quarter-over-quarter drop in six-figure sales at auction (27 percent year-over-year).

Zooming in on specific auction houses, the report shows positive year-over-year growth for just three of the houses included in the report, with Heritage leading the way with an increase of 65 percent y/o/y quarterly sales for its top 50 lots. At the other end of the spectrum, SCP saw a decline of more than 67 percent.

The top 100 sales combined between auction houses reached $32.9 million, a 12 percent decline from the previous quarter.

There were notable results in the game-worn category, as four million-dollar game-worn sales powered the quarter to a 78 percent rise from last quarter, which was notably muted. However, the top 25 sales were down almost 19 percent year-over-year.

As the hobby gears up for a possible record-breaking auction this August at Heritage featuring the Ruth “Called Shot” jersey, there has already been some momentum in the category at Heritage.

“Vintage baseball memorabilia had an impressive quarter at Heritage, and with the potential for a record-breaking Q3 on the horizon, 2024 could end as a banner year for the baseball collectibles market,” Altan Insight’s Bradley Calleja told cllct.

The oft-cited outperformance of vintage cards over modern seems to have been challenged this quarter, as Altan reports the category is now the worst performing era over the past year thanks to poor results in Q2. The report notes that “Vintage continues to meaningfully outperform Modern (by ~13 percent) and Ultra Modern (by ~24 percent)” over a two-year time frame, with Pre-War holding up the best of all.

Calleja noted the significant decline in at the high-end card category, explaining it is not merely that prices have fallen, but supply appears to have dried up.

“This was the first quarter that we tracked since 2015 in which there wasn't a single publicly record sale of a PSA 10 1981 Topps Joe Montana rookie card. The modern football card market seems lost. In 2Q23, Joe Burrow, Lamar, and Josh Allen combined for more than 20 card sales above $20K,” Calleja said. “Those three combined for zero in 2Q24. It's likely still too early to tell if that's a bullish sign but it could be as people are now sitting on cards, not willing to take a loss and waiting on the market.”

Basketball enjoyed a solid quarter, with Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant leading the way as usual. Growth in the popularity and collectibility of Victor Wembanyama and Anthony Edwards was also flagged as buoying the card market for the sport.

Once again, the number of lots of Type 1 photos increased substantially, on pace to grow 175 percent in 2024.

“Already, the total lots sold through the end of Q2 is 38% higher than the whole of 2023,” per the report. Sales volume, while on track to grow 54 percent on the year, still lags behind total supply, exemplifying the massive discrepancy between the high-end and low-end of the market. Despite headline sales in the six-figures, the average price remains below $2,000 — 44 percent lower than 2023.

Tickets have seen better days as Q2 witnessed a mere 11 sales exceeding $10,000 at Heritage, Goldin, Lelands and Golf Auction. Quarterly ticket sales sank below $430,000 for the first time in two years at Heritage.

PSA’s May grading output of 1.36 million cards — the best month in its history — joined with newly-acquired SGC’s 73 percent y/o/y grading increase in April to provide positive signals for the industry’s biggest graders that collectors have continued to submit, regardless of macro trends.

For a more detailed look at the categories discussed above, as well as much more, you can read the full report at Altan Insights.

Will Stern is a reporter and editor for cllct.