No active athlete has captivated collectors more than San Antonio Spurs superstar Victor Wembanyama.
According to data tool Market Movers, Wembanyama has been, by far, the most popular player on the secondary market, with more than 300,000 tracked sales over the last year. Michael Jordan, for once, is in second place with nearly 192,000.
Wembanyama also has become one of the most-graded athletes too, and has already climbed into the top 15 all-time with more than 430,000 cards graded by the four major services, according to third-party tracker GemRate.
But while the high interest in Wembanyama has never been in doubt, recent releases of unlicensed products such as 2023-24 Topps Chrome Basketball and 2023-24 Topps Mercury: Victor Wembanyama have introduced thousands of autographs into the secondary market.
This has made Wembanyama’s autographs as accessible as ever, but for some collectors, it has also made the landscape for his top cards more complicated than ever, too.
Do collectors chase autographs, which are produced exclusively by Fanatics and Topps, on unlicensed cards that can’t include team names or logos?
Or do they opt for the super short-printed parallels and inserts from Panini’s NBA licensed cards that will never include pack-pulled autographs instead?
So far, the data shows the super short-printed licensed cards could be the preference — and it might stay that way.
According to Card Ladder, just two of Wembanyama’s top 20 public sales have included autographs — both of which were from Bowman University products featuring Wembanyama in his French Mets 92 jersey — and the rest are largely low-numbered parallels from Prizm, Select and Donruss products.
It isn’t until the 22nd-highest sale that an unlicensed NBA autograph appears: a patch-auto numbered to just five from Topps Mercury that fetched $32,500.
“Historically, licensed just holds so much better long term ...” Basketball Card Fanatic Magazine founder Adam Gray told cllct. “I’m not sure why it’s this long-standing unwritten hobby rule that unlicensed does not matter as much in the long term, but it’s a generally accepted principle amongst long-term hobbyists. It’s going to be tough to break that.”
Comparing graded examples of ultra-rare parallels to raw copies of unlicensed autographs isn’t apples to apples, but comparing specific autos to similarly numbered parallels or super short-printed inserts could deliver a more clear picture of the market’s preference.
According to Card Ladder, a 2023-24 Topps Chrome Rookie Autographs Red Geometric Refractor PSA 10 numbered to just five — it even includes a “Smiley Face” inscription — sold at Goldin earlier this month for $18,300. Between the grade, low-numbered parallel and inscription, that Red Refractor is among the best unlicensed autographs available for Wembanyama.
It still doesn’t even come close to similarly numbered parallels from licensed sets.
To date, the highest public sale for a Wembanyama card numbered out of five is the $113,460 paid for his 2023-24 Prizm Green Shimmer FOTL PSA 9 at Goldin in May. That card doesn’t have an autograph, but it does include licensed NBA logos.
The trend continues with other non-autographed parallels numbered out of just five, with Wembanyama’s 2023-24 Prizm Neon Green Fast Break /5 PSA 10 selling for $52,460 in June, and another example sold for $46,800 two weeks later. A raw copy of Wembanyama’s 2023-24 Prizm Green Shimmer /5 fetched $23,000 on eBay in February.
According to Card Ladder, two 2023-24 Topps Chrome Autograph Black Wave PSA 10s numbered to just 10 currently hold the top sales for any Wembanyama auto from Topps Chrome Basketball at $23,180 and $21,960.
As expected, similar parallels such as Wembanyama’s Prizm Gold /10 — true Gold parallels are among the hobby’s most coveted chases — have dwarfed sales of the Black Wave Autographs despite a color match to his Spurs jersey. A 2023 Prizm Gold /10 BGS 9.5 sold for $150,000 at PWCC in May while a 2023 Prizm Gold Shimmer FOTL /10 PSA 10 sold for $52,200 at Alt in April.
A thought among some collectors, including GemRate founder Ryan Stuczynski, is the number of Wembanyama’s unlicensed autographs introduced to the secondary market will continue to drive prices down, and the most coveted inserts and parallels could remain at the top.
“There will be too many autos to ultimately choose from, potentially with few clear winners, and I think certain SSPs with low print runs will have enough concentrated demand to actually be more valuable,” Stuczynski told cllct. “On the whole, autos will collectively be worth more than SSPs, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see certain SSPs outperform the majority of Wemby’s early autos.”
Though Wembanyama’s overall card market is still in its infancy, the data so far backs up Stuczynski’s theory.
The highest price for a 2024 Topps Mercury Refractor Autograph /99, which included an alien logo inscription, has been the $4,500 paid on eBay earlier this month, according to Card Ladder.
Wembanyama’s 2023-24 Topps Chrome Refractor Autograph, a non-numbered variation that sold for as much as $7,000 raw shortly after release, but recently fetched just $5,000 as a PSA 10 as autographs continue to flood the market.
Compared to recent sales for licensed non-numbered SSPs from Panini, unlicensed non-numbered or high-numbered autographs have already fallen behind in price. According to Market Movers, a 2023 Spectra Color Blast PSA 9 sold for $12,000 earlier this month, and a 2023 Obsidian Black Color Blast PSA 10 fetched $9,000 in September.
Arguably Wembanyama’s most important insert, a 2023 Crown Royale Kaboom! PSA 7 still managed to sell for $5,000 earlier this month despite a less-than-desirable grade.
Raw examples have performed well on the secondary market, too, with a 2023 Spectra Color Blast fetching $10,200 earlier this month, and a 2023 Prizm Prizmania sold for $8,500. A raw example of Wembanyama’s 2023 Crown Royale Kaboom! even managed to sell for $3,000 despite a more than 70% drop from past sales of more than $11,000.
It should surprise no one if prices for Wembanyama’s unlicensed autographs continue to fall as more are introduced into the market, but the same can be said for Panini’s SSPs, which will certainly have their own populations rise as more are pulled.
The key difference between the two markets remains licensing, however, and there’s precedent that unlicensed cards simply don’t hold the same value — even for some of the game’s all-time greats.
“A perfect example of this is Kobe Bryant,” Gray said. “His only autographed rookie cards are unlicensed, and there are only a few of them. So you’d think they would do really well. Instead, most collectors — even Kobe collectors — barely know they exist.”
At this point, it’s unlikely collectors will forget Wembanyama’s early unlicensed autographs exist, but the evidence so far shows the majority won’t match his lineup of coveted SSPs.
Ben Burrows is a reporter and editor for cllct.