One of the most valuable LeBron James rookie cards in existence will sell at Goldin Auctions as part of its January Elite Auction, offering a glimpse into the state of the high-end market for James’ cards as 2025 begins.
James’ 2003-04 Upper Deck Ultimate Collection autographed rookie card, limited to 250 copies and deemed a perfect BGS Pristine Black Label (meaning it received a perfect “10” in each of the four sub grades), is one of just three examples to receive a Black Label designation.
There are just three public comparable sales: First in November 2020 for $344,400, then in February 2022, when this exact card last sold for $660,000 and most recently in March 2023 for $180,000.
While the final price for one card is not indicative of a market, especially one as central to the hobby as an important James rookie, the rarity and price history of this example — which has a current price of $103,700 (with buyer’s premium) on three bids less than 24 hours into the auction — will be one to watch to set a pace for 2025.
According to CardLadder, James' index has declined 31% over the last two years (dating back nearly to the time of the card’s last comparable sale), however, that index is made up of cards as cheap as $5.
CardLadder’s “High-End” index, composed of cards with a last sale greater than $5,000, has fared better. Still, at 13.77% down over the same period, it also suggests a down market.
Though it might be a more crude measuring stick, it’s perhaps helpful to look simply at the number of six-figure sales of James cards in each of the last few years to get a sense of the health of the market. But it is also important to understand these numbers can be influenced by factors such as willingness to sell, James’ impending retirement and other reasons that impact sales totals without necessarily representing fair market value.
Starting in 2020, when the first comparable sale for the James card coming up at Goldin sold, CardLadder shows 32 results for LeBron card sales of more than $100,000. The comparable sale of the Black Label James rookie card ranked sixth on his most expensive sales that year, with the top two spots clearing $1 million.
The following year, six-figure sales for LeBron cards exploded, with 108. Of those, seven went for $1 million or more.
In 2022, when we last saw this exact card sell, CardLadder shows 101 sales of James cards for more than $100,000. There were 10 that closed at $1 million or more.
In 2023, the number of six-figure sales was sliced in half to 49. There were zero million-dollar sales.
Finally, 2024 shows 40 sales of more than $100,000, the fewest since 2020. There were once again zero million-dollar sales.
Will Stern is a reporter and editor for cllct.