Michael Jordan's 1986 Fleer rookie is the most famous basketball card ever produced ... and it's not even close.
On Wednesday afternoon, social media was abuzz after Barstool personality Big Cat pulled a Jordan rookie card out of a pack of 1986 Fleer.
But before you pull up eBay and go Jordan hunting in unopened packs, there are a few things you need to know.
What are the odds of pulling a Jordan rookie out of an unsearched pack of 1986 Fleer?
There were 132 cards and 11 stickers produced in the 1986 Fleer basketball set. Each pack contained 12 cards, a sticker and a pack of gum. That means that, assuming the pack comes out of an untampered box, a Jordan card should fall once in every 11 packs.
What are the odds of pulling a Jordan out of a random pack of 1986 Fleer today?
Significantly lower. Most unopened packs found on eBay, graded or ungraded, would likely be sold or submitted by someone who knew there would not be a Jordan card inside.
How can someone tell there is a Jordan card inside an unopened pack?
In many cases, it’s possible to actually see through the wrapper of a pack and identify the card in the front. Because the set is sequenced within, one can extrapolate from that card to know with a high level of certainty whether a Jordan card is inside the pack.
For obvious reasons, many of the packs believed (based on the sequencing) to not contain a Jordan card are left unopened and graded or sold raw.
How much is a Jordan rookie card worth?
That depends on the grade of the card. Though the market has seen plenty of peaks and valleys over the years — selling for as much as $840,000 in a PSA 10 at the top of the market — here are the current market values for Jordan rookie cards in each grade, based on most recent sales:
- PSA 10: $204,000
- PSA 9: $21,845.25
- PSA 8: $7,099
- PSA 7: $5,375.62
- PSA 6: $4,794.33
- PSA 5: $3,862.50
- PSA 4: $3,500
- PSA 3: $3,000
- PSA 2: $2,650
- PSA 1: $2,675
Will every card I pull out of a pack grade a 10?
No. In fact, the vast majority will not be a 10 … and in many cases, would not have been a 10 even if they went straight from the factory to the grading room.
That’s because there are various components of a card considered in grading that have nothing to do with wear and tear, such as centering, which is dependent completely upon the printing.
In order to be graded a PSA 10, the image must be centered on the card within 55/45 percent on the front and 75/25 percent on the back.
Additionally, these packs have been sitting around for nearly 40 years! There are plenty of things that can occur to a car while within a pack, like edge wear and even staining from gum that can negatively impact its grade.
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What are the odds of getting a 10?
This question is tough to answer with certainty because all the available data in population reports from grading companies suffers from selection bias.
Doesn’t it make sense more collectors would be motivated to submit a card for grading that appears in better condition? You’ll notice there are nearly the same number of PSA 1s as PSA 10s.
Out of 28,436 examples graded by PSA, just 326 (~1.15%) have received a PSA 10.
That being said, here is the distribution of Jordan rookie cards at each PSA grade.
Total: 28,436
- PSA 10: 326
- PSA 9: 3,033
- PSA 8: 9,035
- PSA 7: 4,738
- PSA 6: 2,873
- PSA 5: 1,813
- PSA 4: 1,445
- PSA 3: 773
- PSA 2: 434
- PSA 1: 360
What will an unopened pack cost on eBay?
Unauthenticated packs sell for around $1,000, while authenticated packs go for around $2,100 in a PSA 7 and $2,500 in a PSA 8. If you're going to buy this lottery ticket, cllct recommends buying a grading pack to ensure it isn't opened and re-ironed.
Will Stern is a reporter and editor for cllct, the premier company for collectible culture.