Ever since the record-breaking $940,000 private sale of a Michael Jordan 1984 Star PSA 9 (population: 3) in May, the card has seen explosive growth across grades.
At the time of that sale, here were the all-time high prices for the card in each of the following grades:
- PSA 8: $158,400 (March 2021)
- PSA 7: $32,400 (April 2024)
- PSA 6: $17,700 (September 2022)
After that sale, which dethroned the Jordan 1986 Fleer rookie card by cementing a high watermark for the Star above the top recorded sale of the Fleer in any grade, we’ve seen a cascade of record-shattering sales.
Records for Jordan Star cards in all three grades have occurred in the past seven days alone.
In the months since, the record for a PSA 8 has surged to $244,000, which was established Monday — outselling the current price for a PSA 10 Fleer rookie, one of which sold in the same auction for $195,200.
The record for a PSA 7 is now more than $50,000, and a PSA 6 recently sold for $40,800, 25% higher than the record for a PSA 7 just months ago.
In the two days since publishing this original article, the PSA 9 record joined the ranks of the others and established yet another record, selling for more than $1 million in a private transaction.
So, what is the reason behind this run-up in prices?
The most obvious is rarity.
PSA and Beckett have graded a combined 1,565.
For the Fleer rookie? That number is more than 41,000.
There are reasons for this, of course. One being the regional distribution and low production numbers of the 1984 Star cards, which were distributed in team bags — accounting for much of the reason why it has often been discounted as not a true rookie card.
On the other hand, the widespread production, and perhaps more importantly, popularity, of the Fleer rookie, led to far more collectors holding onto and seeking out the card.
But could the simple fact of rarity be the factor causing this record-breaking season of sales for the Star? After all, this isn’t a new phenomenon.
It’s certainly a factor, but it’s not so simple.
The history is important: The Star card wasn’t always cheaper than its Fleer counterpart.
In November 1993, Beckett listed the Star card as the most coveted Jordan card at $4,500 in mint. The 1986-87 Fleer was at $850 in mint.
It made sense, regardless of its XRC (non-rookie) designation, the Star card still came first. And it was always so much rarer.
With the advent of the internet, rarity soon lost its chokehold. Yes, fewer Star cards were around, but they were now available on eBay. Gone were the days of hoping a local card shop or card show happened to have the card in stock.
The grading era added a new layer of complexity.
Then, as PSA stopped grading the card, and rumors swirled surrounding potential forgeries, the Fleer rookie reigned supreme.
“I think that at some level that kind of held the Star card back, just the fear factor around why people hadn't graded them,” said David Ratliff, a longtime collector of cards and pop-culture items.
Adam Gray, founder of Basketball Card Fanatic Magazine, cited PSA’s decision to stop grading the cards (and resume grading them) as a key inflection point as well. Gray saw the move by PSA as a possible catalyst. “It was like, well, how high is it gonna get?”
There’s also the PSA brand to consider.
The market has long shown a preference for PSA-slabbed cards. So, when PSA returned to the game, there was a level of true interest among collectors who wanted to see their collections featured in the same PSA slabs as the rest of their collection.
“I do think there's some legitimate new demand,” collector and investor Patrick Ryan said.
This appears to be reflected by the comparatively diminished sales volume of Star cards in BGS slabs. Just one public sale of a BGS 9 (population: 74) has occurred in 2024, selling for $132,000 in June 2024.
One reason for that could be the incentives for owners of Star cards in Beckett slabs to crack and resubmit to PSA, which, if given an equal grade, will massively increase the value of the card.
But as for why now, in the summer of 2024, the market has seen such a rapid upswing in value and demand for the cards, there doesn’t appear to be a logical answer from a collector perspective.
“Let's be serious: This card's been around for 40 years. Nothing about this story is new,” Ratliff said. “There's been no great new discovery around it. People knew about the print runs and other stuff. So, you know what I think, what I think we've seen is now, that's the emergence of the PSA grading of it again, I think has sort of helped it.”
Ryan sees it as a representative of a narrative that has taken place throughout the hobby in recent years.
“At a macro level, there are modern card collectors who are dying to find ’safer places to park money’,” Ryan said. “And basically, there's been a movement out of modern and into stuff like this over the last two years. I think that everyone's just sort of like, ‘I better get in now before it's too late.'"
That’s only part of the story.
As Ratliff and Gray both see it, it’s a matter of speculative money over collector preferences driving the train. Much like the way the Fleer Jordan was ruthlessly price-protected by holders of large quantities of the card, we might be seeing the same play out with the Star card.
“I believe that the hobby is very much a copycat sort of game around what, especially around momentum cards,” Ratliff said. “I don't believe that the reality is these cards are going to the hands of actual collectors. Because I think the people that really wanted to collect them had 40 years to have a chance to get their hands on these cards.”
It’s momentum investors making up the bulk of these purchases in Ratliff’s opinion, with some protecting the price of their investments in much the same way many did and still do with the Fleer card.
Gray agrees, saying that he feels there is certainly an “institutional” buyer in the market which gives him pause as to the viability and sustainability of these prices.
Describing the incredibly sharp rise in prices recently, Ratliff says it “screams” of a momentum trade. It’s a question of how willing the group of buyers and holders of these cards are to protect the cards at their prices, even as we see more and more appear for sale.
“I don't know what's moving it,” Ratliff said. “I just know with moves that big, it always tends to come back to somebody deciding to start hoarding some or there's a concerted effort to defend the floor by a group of individuals.”
Others see less complicated reasons behind the rising value of the cards. "I think it's a trend," said Nat Turner, CEO of Collectors. "Those cards are on fire."
There’s also one more point of consideration when it comes to the collectibility of the Star card: The photography.
“What’s the first thing you think of when you think of Michael Jordan?" Ratliff asked. “‘Definitely rebounding,’ said nobody ever.”
Will Stern is a reporter and editor for cllct.