The “Break of the Decade” had all the components to live up to its name: Celebrity guests, boxes of some of the most important cards of all time and a captive audience at Fanatics Fest NYC.
The results fell alarmingly short, however, and the break, hosted by Blez Sports Cards, serves as possibly the biggest cautionary tale yet for those hoping to score big when opening sealed wax.
Centered mostly around high-end products where the biggest hit has yet to surface, 99 spots were sold for $5,000 each. Though it’s likely many of those hits have yet to be pulled, it’s possible some — especially for products from the early 2000s — might have been hit but not publicly disclosed.
Let's go inside the anatomy of the break, as cllct watched nearly four hours of ripping and assessed the final results:
2018-19 Panini Prizm Basketball
In terms of ultra-modern cards, few are more important than Luka Doncic’s Panini Prizm rookie. As far as anyone can tell, the true Black 1/1 has yet to surface — with many believing it could fetch millions in a high grade on the secondary market.
Sealed cases of 12 hobby boxes like this are currently being sold for $60,000 or more, with that price rising as each case is cracked without the Doncic Black 1/1. In addition to Doncic, 2018-19 Prizm features rookies for hobby favorites Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Trae Young and Jalen Brunson.
Results: Brothers Chad and Jared Bleznick pulled the Luka Doncic Base rookie card four times across the 12 boxes, but those hits won’t make up for the case’s secondary-market price. Currently trending around $200, that Doncic Prizm Base has a PSA 10 population of more than 20,000 — that’s what being among the most important cards of the era will do.
The star of the case was a Jaylen Brown Black 1/1, though that also doesn’t move the break value up much. According to Card Ladder, the record for any non-autographed Brown Black 1/1 is $5,049, paid for his 2016-2017 Panini Prizm Mosaic Black 1/1 rookie in June. This card would fall well short of that on the secondary market.
The collective secondary market value for the cards pulled was likely less than $15,000, even though it included other hits like autographs for Trae Young, Tracy McGrady, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, John Stockton and a Gordon Hayward Mojo /25.
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2018 Topps Chrome Sapphire Edition Baseball
The break went hunting for Shohei Ohtani in one of the best baseball products from 2018. At $12,000 per box, the right Ohtani rookie could make up value extremely quickly. Featuring a much lower print run than typical flagship releases, rookies from Topps Chrome Sapphire Edition typically fetch much higher secondary-market prices than others.
PSA 10 examples of Ohtani’s Base Sapphire Edition are currently trending around $3,400, while a Rookie Autograph sold for $16,200 in May 2023. Though unlikely, a low-numbered Ohtani Rookie Autograph in a high grade could make the break.
Results: Plenty of Angels were pulled, but there was no Ohtani. Of the base cards, a Ronald Acuna Jr. was the highlight, with PSA 10 examples currently trending around $1,900.
After being joined by Fanatics founder and CEO Michael Rubin on stage, the group pulled one of the best cards of the entire break in Box 5 — a Rafael Devers Orange Autograph /25. A PSA 10 example of that Devers Orange Autograph sold for $4,999 in June 2023.
Even with the addition of autographs for Ozzie Albies, Jack Flaherty and a Albert Almora Superfractor 1/1, this break is fighting to hit the $12,000 value of a single box, let alone all five.
2009-10 Topps Basketball Jumbo
Of all the massive cards that have yet to surface, few are bigger than the 2009 Topps Stephen Curry Superfractor 1/1. It’s not an exaggeration to say the card would be one of the most important modern pulls of all time, and a single 2009-10 Topps Basketball Jumbo Box was acquired for $30,000 to chase it.
Results: They didn’t pull it. But with the help of David Leiner, Fanatics Collectibles’ president of trading cards, the team sorted through pack after pack while scoring a respectable return, all things considered.
The group pulled two Steph Curry Base cards, including one in the last pack, which can fetch $6,000 each on the secondary market as PSA 10s. In addition to the Curry’s, two James Harden Base rookies were pulled, though he hasn’t been a hobby favorite in years. That card can be had on the secondary market in a PSA 10 for a little more than $300.
2017 Panini National Treasures Football
Among football products, few are more important than 2017 Panini National Treasures Football. Featuring ultra high-end rookie cards for Patrick Mahomes, this product could contain a multi-million rookie card in a high grade.
At this point in the break, this was the first product considered ultra high-end when it was first released, and the product’s configuration supports that. Featuring one pack of eight total cards, the product is already considered a boom-or-bust rip. Currently at $60,000 per case, the 32 total cards average out to about $1,875 per card. Short of hitting a Mahomes or Christian McCaffrey RPA, it’ll be almost impossible to recoup the case’s value.
Results: The first box had a strong start with an Alvin Kamara Gold RPA numbered to just 10. Though it’s a very nice card, including a fantastic patch, similar examples have sold for less than $700 as a PSA 9 and just $500 raw.
The third box contained a Jeremy Hill Booklet RPA /5, which featured an incredible Bengals patch. Hill returned again in Box 4 with a Nike Patch /2 with mud attached. Other highlights included a Taywan Taylor RPA Booklet and a redemption for Juju Smith-Schuster, which Peyton Manning, who joined during the break, signed.
In total, despite a number of beautiful cards, the case featured likely less than $5,000 worth of value and likely didn’t feature a single card that would sell for the case’s $1,875 price-per-card average.
2003-04 Upper Deck Ultimate Collection Basketball
This rip is all about chasing the Logoman — a patch that features the NBA logo. The LeBron James Logoman 1/1 Autograph has yet to surface publicly, and could possibly end up as his most expensive card ever when it finally does. It’s unclear how much this case was acquired for, though one sold last year at Goldin for $51,240.
Along with big cards available for James, there are important rookies for Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, with a much smaller value on the secondary market. There’s also a number of autographs featuring Kobe Bryant and Michael Jordan.
Truthfully, at $50,000 per case, it would require hitting an important James, Bryant or Jordan card to recoup the value.
Results: Referred to on stage as the “biggest boom or bust break of all time,” Ultimate Collection carried that theme for another case. After two boxes, which were highlighted by a Julius Erving redemption autograph, the group collectively agreed that “it’s going to get better.”
It didn’t.
Box 3 and Box 4 were led by a Tracy McGrady autograph, a Scottie Pippen Blazers jersey card, and a Kobe Bryant jersey card /25. Well-known collector “Shyne150” joined the break as an expert on the product, and called it one of the worst cases he has ever seen.
Even with the allure of Ultimate Collection, it’s hard to see any card topping $1,000 on the secondary market.
2007-08 Upper Deck Exquisite Basketball
Considered one of the most important products of all time, Upper Deck Exquisite Collection features some of the industry’s most stunning patches and autographs. Much like Ultimate Collection, the chase here is for the Logoman, though this time a Jordan or James can still be snagged.
Kevin Durant RPAs can also secure strong secondary-market prices, though it’s fair to wonder if they would hold up compared to highs during the market boom. According to Card Ladder, the most expensive sale of a Durant card was a 2007-08 Exquisite Collection Rookie Parallel RPA /35 BGS 9/10, which sold for $750,000 in 2021.
This case was acquired for $85,000 and needs a Durant-type card to recoup its value.
Results: Of the cases in this break, none were harder to watch than Exquisite Basketball. Out of the three boxes, an Al Horford Number Pieces /15 was the highlight, though it likely would sell for $500 or less on the secondary market.
A barely readable redemption, which has long expired, appeared to be for a Julius Erving/Kareem Abdul-Jabbar dual autograph. That’s far from what was needed value-wise.
“That was brutal,” Jared Bleznick said as a recap.
1996-1997 Fleer Skybox E-X2000 Basketball
The final case of the break, the Bleznicks were joined by Allen Iverson for a number of packs. A beloved set that pairs a top rookie class with an all-time design, Skybox E-X2000 features rookies for Iverson, Kobe Bryant, Ray Allen and more.
Hobby Boxes currently sell for between $12,000 and $13,000, with Bleznick reportedly acquiring this 12-box case for $150,000.
Extremely condition-sensitive cards, pulling ultra-rare Credentials isn’t enough — they’ll have to grade extremely well to hold high value.
Results: Pressed for time, the group only got through about four or so boxes while chatting with Iverson. To that point, three Iverson rookies and two Bryant rookies had been pulled.
A 1996-97 Skybox E-X2000 Kobe Bryant BGS 9.5 sold for $8,211 on eBay in 2022, and a Kobe Bryant Star Date PSA 10 fetched $7,360 in 2020.
After spending roughly $500,000 in sealed wax, the "Break of the Decade" likely produced — assuming every card would sell after securing a high grade — less than 20% of what it cost.
Summary
For Blez Sports Cards, it was a disappointing result for a break that, from a product selection standpoint, was about as good as anything that has ever been done.
Fanatics Fest NYC also did a great job providing a number of stars to join for color commentary, though it could be argued those stars simply bogged down a break that already wasn't delivering the hits.
Without considering the results, the "Break of the Decade" was built to be something special. But the results matter, more than anything, and that's what collectors will remember.
Even if everything else goes right, bad break results will sour the experience, whether Peyton Manning is opening the packs or not.
Ben Burrows is a reporter and editor for cllct.