Not even a Super Bowl Three-Peat can save Patrick Mahomes' card prices from the NFL offseason.
Already considered one of the greatest quarterbacks ever, Mahomes has delivered three Super Bowls and two MVPs at just 29. He’s one of the most popular players in the sports card hobby, too, but those accolades can’t save his key cards from price declines as the NFL slips into the offseason and collector interest shifts to other sports.
For those hoping to add Mahomes to their collection as he tried to make history with a third straight Super Bowl win Sunday in New Orleans, the days leading up to and immediately following the big game are among the worst times to invest, with the market for his key cards likely surging.
Soon after, though, collectors paying attention can pick up Mahomes’ rookies for close to as low as they’ll get — even if he’s coming off a Super Bowl win.
According to data tool Market Movers, many of Mahomes’ key rookie cards have experienced the same price trajectory leading into and following the Super Bowl over his last two appearances.
Of the cards tracked by Market Movers, Mahomes’ 2017 Optic Base PSA 10 has been by far his most popular graded rookie among collectors over the last year. Drilling into past Super Bowl appearances tells the same story time and time again.
Even when ignoring Mahomes’ first Super Bowl win in 2020 — the card market was experiencing explosive and unsustainable growth at the time — we can still see plenty of data from his second Super Bowl win in 2023 and his third in 2024.
According to Market Movers, his 2017 Optic Base PSA 10 was averaging around $900 on Jan. 1, 2023. By Feb. 12, the day that Mahomes and the Chiefs topped Philadelphia in Super Bowl LVII, it had risen in price to about $1,000 and eventually peaked closer to $1,500 before the end of February.
By early April, it had slipped back to around $900 before eventually restarting a gradual climb back over $1,000 for the 2024 NFL season.
A similar trajectory can be calculated for Super Bowl LVIII last year.
After averaging close to $850 on Jan. 1, Mahomes’ 2017 Optic Base PSA 10 surged to more than $1,200 in the days leading into and directly after the win over the 49ers on Feb. 12. By early April, it was back down to around $930.
Mahomes’ second-most popular graded rookie card over the last year, his 2017 Donruss Base PSA 10, has experienced a similar trajectory.
In early 2023, that card was trending around $830 but climbed to more than $1,100 in the days following the Super Bowl. Just days later, it was trending mostly around $900, outside of several outlier sales, and was down closer to $700 by mid-March.
The following year, that Donruss rookie was as low as $700 in early January 2024, but climbed to more than $1,200 within a week of his third Super Bowl win. Multiple sales under $800 had arrived by early March.
Even the highly-coveted 2017 Prizm Silver PSA 10, which is one of the most price manipulated cards on the secondary market, saw offseason prices decline following a Super Bowl win. After trending around $3,700 in early January 2023, a number of sales above $5,000 arrived in mid- and late-February. By early April, it was trending closer to $3,600.
In 2024, that Prizm Silver was trending around $3,500 in mid-January but surged to multiple sales closer to $5,000 in late February and early March. By mid-March it had returned below $4,000 before eventually restarting a climb into the regular season.
The idea that cards decline in price for the offseason is far from unusual, but it is an interesting dynamic that the collecting community can move on so quickly even when a superstar player is making history.
Few players are as coveted in 2025 as Mahomes, but consider waiting a few weeks, win or lose on Sunday, if you want to add the Chiefs QB to your own collection. You’ll likely find a much better price.
Ben Burrows is a reporter and editor for cllct.