Forget the MVP awards, World Series rings and walk-off home runs.
For many of MLB's top stars, the most important moment for their collectibles market arrives before a major-league inning is ever played.
And the data backs it up.
On the surface, the concept doesn’t make sense — the moment a player is called up to the big club or makes the Opening Day roster is important, of course, but it’ll hardly be what fans remember a decade later.
For collectors, however, it represents endless possibilities unadulterated by the reality of actual performance.
A player’s reality only sets in when he takes the field for the first time. Prior to that, each top prospect could be anything — including the greatest of all-time — and fans are willing to pay a premium in that moment.
To collectors, that potential is often far greater than any reality the player will ever experience.
One of this offseason’s best feel-good stories arrived Tuesday, when Houston’s top prospect, Cam Smith, made the Opening Day roster.
The call up. #BuiltForThis pic.twitter.com/5d1HxEFk0l
— Houston Astros (@astros) March 25, 2025
The Astros had Smith’s mother, Stephanie Hocza, break the news to her son that he would land with the big-league roster to start the season, and fans and teammates alike were captivated by the moment.
Prior to Tuesday, Smith’s 2024 1st Bowman Draft Chrome Refractor was trending around $10 over the last two weeks, according to data tool Market Movers.
By Wednesday morning, it had sold for $29.
The uptick for one of Smith’s most popular cards is just one of dozens of examples of the market immediately reacting to the call-up in recent years.
Last year’s top prospect, Jackson Holliday, experienced the same phenomena but to an even greater extent, with collectors coveting the infielder's cards for an extended period prior to call-up.
Holliday experienced considerable hype when his 1st Bowman cards first landed, but an analysis of sales over the last year shows how easy it is to spot the moment he was first called up last season.
Prior to his promotion, Holliday’s 2022 1st Bowman Draft Chrome PSA 10, by far his most popular graded card on the secondary market over the last year, was mostly trending between $50-$60.
On April 10, the day Holliday was called up, it sold 32 times, compared to just eight the day prior.
By April 11, its value had increased to about $70 on 24 sales with volume remaining at 10-plus per day until April 15.
More than a year later, after collectors watched Holliday struggle in 2024, that card can be snagged for less than $30. Holliday can still be every bit the top prospect fans and collectors hoped he would be, but there’s a very real chance that card never returns to $70 for more than a brief moment.
The trend can even be seen with Paul Skenes, last year’s National League Rookie of the Year and the most famous and popular pitcher in baseball not named Shohei Ohtani.
The most important moment for Skenes’ high-end market arrived recently when his Rookie Debut Patch Autograph sold for a staggering $1.1 million, but the lower end has largely been highlighted by the run-up to his MLB debut.
News that Skenes would make his Pirates debut first broke May 8, and the former LSU star delivered his first big-league pitches days later on May 11.
According to Market Movers, Skenes’ most popular graded card over the last year, his 2023 1st Bowman Draft PSA 10, was mostly selling a few times per day for between $40 and $60 in April.
On May 8, that card sold 13 times after selling just once the day prior.
By May 10, the day before his debut, that card was averaging closer to $100 and by May 12, the day after his debut, it was averaging more than $130.
That card eventually peaked at $250 but now, a year later following a major award and a number of record-setting high-end sales, can be scored for less than $60.
Players can, of course, see their markets grow beyond the initial hype for their first call-up, but most prospects don’t work out long-term, so the unfortunate reality is that for many, that moment is the best of their career.
Prospecting has long been an extremely popular part of the hobby, with some savvy collectors dedicating the majority of their time and money to researching and buying the top future prospects with plans to sell at this exact moment.
If the collectors target the right prospects early, they can score big when the hype finally plateaus.
Because after all, a player can be anything when they are first called up. After a season or two, they might just be another guy.
Ben Burrows is a reporter and editor for cllct.